Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Sub-lethal exposure to ultraviolet radiation reduces prey consumption by Atlantic cod larvae (Gadus morhua)

Levels of ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B: 280–315 nm) reaching the earth’s surface have increased over the past few decades due to ozone depletion. It is well documented that exposure to UV-B radiation increases mortality in marine fish larvae. However, few studies have examined sub-lethal effects of UV-B radiation such as, for example, the possibility that it affects prey consumption by fish larvae. Atlantic cod larvae were exposed to a sub-lethal level of ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B: 280–315 nm) for 15 h. After the exposure, rotifers (4/mL) were fed to cod larvae at three different post-exposure intervals (20 min, 3 and 6 h). Trials were replicated three times for each post-exposure interval. The number of rotifers in the gut and the percent of empty guts (number of fish with empty gut/number of fish examined × 100) were analyzed. Results were compared to those of unexposed fish (the control treatment). UV-B exposed cod larvae had consumed significantly fewer rotifers than control fish at all post-exposure intervals. There was no significant difference in the frequency of empty guts between fish in the UV-B treatment versus fish in the control treatment at any of the post-exposure time points (although the difference at 20 min post-exposure was borderline significant). These observations suggest that cod larvae exposed to sub-lethal levels of UV-B have lower net energy gain which may lead to reduced growth rate and possibly poorer survival.     

Integrated catchment modeling for nutrient reduction: scenarios showing impacts, potential, and cost of measures

A hydrological-based model (HBV-NP) was applied to a catchment (1900 km2) in the southern part of Sweden. Careful characterization of the present load situation and the potential for improved treatment or reduced soil leaching were analyzed. Several scenarios were modeled to find strategies to reach the Swedish environmental goals of reducing anthropogenic nitrogen load by 30% and phosphorus load by 20%. It was stated that the goals could be reached by different approaches that would affect different polluters and social sectors. However, no single measure was enough by itself. Instead, a combination of measures was necessary to achieve the goals. The nitrogen goal was the most difficult to attain. In order to be cost-effective, these measures should be applied to areas contributing the most to the net loading of the sea. This strategy could reduce the costs by 70%-80% when compared with implementing the measures in the entire catchment. Integrated catchment models may thus be helpful tools for reducing costs in environmental control programs.     

Parameter precision in the HBV-NP model and impacts on nitrogen scenario simulations in the Rönneå river, southern Sweden

The HBV-NP model is a newly developed water quality model that describes the turnover and fluxes of both nitrogen and phosphorous. It is based on the conceptual precipitation/runoff HBV model. The HBV-NP model was applied for simulation of nitrogen for the R?nne? catchment in southern Sweden. The catchment was divided into 64 subcatchments in the model. Discharge measurements from six stations and nitrogen measurements from 12 stations were used in the calibration of parameters in the model. Eight automatic calibrations were performed with different combinations of time periods, objective functions, and levels of the nitrogen load in the model. A regionally extended interpretation of the Nash-Sutcliffe R2 criterion was used in the calibration. In the evaluation of the criterion, the errors were summed over both time steps and sampling points. Scenario simulations of combined measures for reduction of nitrogen load into the sea by 30% were thereafter performed with the eight sets of parameters established by calibration. The model parameters were not uniquely defined by the calibration. However, the simulated relative reduction of nitrogen load into the sea was relatively insensitive to the choice of parameter set, given the available input sources, variables, and data.     

EIA and green procurement: Opportunities for strengthening their coordination

EIA plays an important role in enhancing the environmental performance of the construction sector. In recent years, the construction sector has been developing green procurement practices. Green procurement is a process that involves the incorporation of environmental requirements during the procurement of services and products. However, discussion on green procurement is rarely seen during the EIA phase. This paper addresses possible opportunities for improving the coordination between EIA and green procurement within the construction sector. The linking of EIA and green procurement has been postulated in the paper as an aid to strengthen the coordination between project planning and implementation. The paper is based on a literature review and is an outcome of an on-going research project concerning EIA and green procurement. This study indicated that it would be appropriate to introduce green procurement during the pre-decision phase of an EIA. In the present study, the opportunities for integrating green procurement at the stage of EIA are associated with the integration of project planning and EIA. Future research should investigate the mechanism through which the link can be established.     

Governance of Water Resources in the Phase of Change: A Case Study of the Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in Sweden

In this article, focusing on the ongoing implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive, we analyze some of the opportunities and challenges for a sustainable governance of water resources from an ecosystem management perspective. In the face of uncertainty and change, the ecosystem approach as a holistic and integrated management framework is increasingly recognized. The ongoing implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) could be viewed as a reorganization phase in the process of change in institutional arrangements and ecosystems. In this case study from the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District, Sweden, we focus in particular on data and information management from a multi-level governance perspective from the local stakeholder to the River Basin level. We apply a document analysis, hydrological mapping, and GIS models to analyze some of the institutional framework created for the implementation of the WFD. The study underlines the importance of institutional arrangements that can handle variability of local situations and trade-offs between solutions and priorities on different hierarchical levels.     

Comparison of different salt solutions for density separation of conventional and biodegradable microplastic from solid sample matrices

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Microplastics are the new emerging pollutants ubiquitously detectable in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Fate and behavior, as well as...     

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.     

Scenario realism and welfare estimates in choice experiments--a non-market valuation study on the European water framework directive

Using choice experiment data for economic valuation we analyse how disbelief in survey information could affect the retrieved welfare estimates. We distinguish between two types of survey information to the respondents. The first type of information concerns the current environmental status of a water body. This information is provided prior to the valuation questions and the corresponding beliefs in the provided information are also elicited before valuation. The second type of information concerns the proposed improvements in the environmental status of the water body. We find that average welfare measures differ considerably according to whether respondents who disagree with the status quo levels and find proposed scenarios unlikely are included or not.